Figure 1 suggests the cumulative death due to COVID-19 on day-wise after the death toll reaches to 10. It is almost increasing linearly between day 15-30 and then getting parallel to x axis in the case of China (Hebei), Iran, S Korea. Inline Figure 2, that depicts no. of deaths on a day starting from 10th death. We see a single day maximum death reported in China (Hebei), South Korea, (and Iran*) is not crossing around 150. And, that is occurring between day 15-30 after the 10th death occurs. And, the steep rise is observed after day 10 of 10th death. So if the control measured are at place, then it can damage maximum to range of 3000-3500 death as we have seen in the case Hebei. And, it can be brought under control in 60days after 10th death for given health service level of China as observed in China (Hebei) and S. Korea. But, if the control measures (e.g. lockdown) are weak and health system fails , then it may certainly follow the path of Italy, France, Spain, UK, and US, which is leading to haywire situations.
So to make the points here,
1. For any region that is locked down where it is country or state or district we have to focus on 10th death and next 15 days it should not cross 50-100 death maximum.
2. If not, critical patients may rise shooting up, health services may certainly collapse may not get same the number of ventilators for critical patients. And, it may lead to higher deaths in the range of 500-1000.
So, based above analysis,
specifically, the states Maharasthra, Kerala, Karnataka, Telanagna, and UP seem to entered in third stage. Maharastra has observed its 6th death on 28-03-2020.
The authority in India should take even much more extreme measures in next 15 days to ensure the lockdown at and to contain the spread as minimum number of regions possible so that the health services (staff and ventilators) of other safe regions can be moved to these specific regions.
specifically, the states Maharasthra, Kerala, Karnataka, Telanagna, and UP seem to entered in third stage. Maharastra has observed its 6th death on 28-03-2020.
The authority in India should take even much more extreme measures in next 15 days to ensure the lockdown at and to contain the spread as minimum number of regions possible so that the health services (staff and ventilators) of other safe regions can be moved to these specific regions.
General population also need to understand the importance of lockdown and limitations on health service. The steep rise of death in Italy, Spain, UK, the US and France is because of these reasons only.
Author: Shivshanker Singh Patel
*Some doubts raised by tabloid with the data reported
@(data: ©Johns Hopkins University-https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19)
