Analysis on 10th death of COVID-19 +

Figure 1 suggests the cumulative death due to COVID-19 on day-wise after the death toll reaches to 10. It is almost increasing linearly between day 15-30 and then getting parallel to x axis in the case of China (Hebei), Iran, S Korea. Inline Figure 2, that depicts no. of deaths on a day starting from 10^th death. We see a single day maximum death reported in China (Hebei), South Korea, (and Iran*) is not crossing around 150. And, that is occurring between day 15-30 after the 10th death occurs. And, the steep rise is observed after day 10 of 10th death. So if the control measured are at place, then it can damage maximum to range of 3000-3500 death as we have seen in the case Hebei. And, it can be brought under control in 60days after 10^th death for given health service level of China as observed in China (Hebei)  and S. Korea. But, if the control measures (e.g. lockdown) are weak and health system fails , then it may certainly follow the path of Italy, France, Spain, UK, and US, which is leading to haywire situations. 

So to make the points here,

1.      For any region that is locked down where it is country or state or district we have to focus on 10th death and next 15 days it should not cross 50-100 death maximum.

2.      If not, critical patients may rise shooting up, health services may certainly collapse may not get same the number of ventilators for critical patients. And, it may lead to higher deaths in the range of 500-1000.

So, based above analysis, 
specifically, the states Maharasthra, Kerala, Karnataka, Telanagna, and UP seem to entered in third stage. Maharastra has observed its 6th death on 28-03-2020.
The authority in India should take even much more extreme measures in next 15 days to ensure the lockdown at and to contain the spread as minimum number of regions possible so that the health services (staff and ventilators) of other safe regions can be moved to these specific regions. 

General population also need to understand the importance of lockdown and limitations on health service. The steep rise of death in Italy, Spain, UK, the US and France is because of these reasons only.

Author: Shivshanker Singh Patel

*Some doubts raised by tabloid with the data reported

@(data: ©Johns Hopkins University-https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19)

local optimal success{ordinals of life 2.0 }

Shivshanker Singh Patel
Bangalore, 560012, India

May 16, 2013

Figure1: Local and global optimum

This post is an extension of my previous post Ordinals of life, where I discussed about Mr. Sanjay who always wanted to enjoy a normal life and was always considered as extraordinary by rest of the normal population. In this post again, I try to capture as usual a mathematical purview of human life, Some of my friends try to put this in to fixed genre(i.e Metaphysics). This post is motivated by Weierstrass’ Theorem for functions and human interactions. My knowledge in the field of sociology and psychology is limited. So I tried to surrogate the social exchange theory and related issues to information theory, contributed by Claude E. Shannon.
We know that a human gets birth and dies one day so this set of life(time), which closed and bounded. And if success(happiness/utility) is function time i.e. f(t) then we can map each success points on to Real line.
Definition:
Success is a real valued continuous function f(s) : s-->ℜ. Where f(s)∈ S, s∈F.
Theorem 1 (Weierstrass’ Theorem for functions) Let f(s) be a continuous real-valued function on the compact non-empty set F ⊂ℜ . Then F contains a point that minimizes(maximizes) f(s) on the set F.

          Above theorem clearly states that if the set is closed and bounded then the function will be having a maximum or minimum value in that domain. As i have already defined above the life of individual is closed and bounded set of time. It means that a human life will reach to its maximum value(in terms of success/happiness) in that compact set. This success(happiness) is defined in the previous post(see figure:2). It can be only considered a success when there will be ordinal comparison or benchmark.

Figure2: Ordinals and success as continuous function

Now I would like to bring the notion of information exchange. This information can be exchange by different means, if I consider that the natural language was not discovered, our sensory capability could capture some information from the surrounding. It means neighbour hood. For the time being, I try to introduce two types of neighbourhoods. First one is temporal and the other is spatial. In the case of single human with time(temporal neighbourhood)  he/she sees his/her own success/happiness and it’s graph and traverse according to his/her ordinal preference and jumping on other curves(see Figure2). In this case I have dropped its spatial movement and its implicit nature of comparison. I would like to mention again the person named Sanjay who was always enjoying his life where he considered his success with his own compact set of time, and his comparison was always with him.

If I apply Theorem1 to understand the two dimensions, where I include both the temporal and spatial type of neighbourhood and then the whole situation would be like Figure1 where there are successes, continuous function with respect to time and space. So if I take every individual human and his life is a subset of the bigger set which includes the every human and with either a fixed time frame or we can consider the superimposing of different  time window where success can be brought in the same comparison platform.
 Hypothesis
Every single person is success full and happy if i consider subset d ∈ {space X time} and this subset is assumed as a compact set, so means whatever that has been consider a local optimal success becomes a global optimal success with respect to that person in that compact set. This subset is defined within the constraint of information exchange. The more volatile and large information network will exist the bigger the compact set will be. And than his own global optimal success will become a local optimal success in this bigger compact set.

Need psychological Manumission

lets start the whole discussion with the definition of  Manumission: formal emancipation from slavery(click). It is very important to understand the dimension of slavery that exist in our society. With a limited capacity of understanding that i have about Indian society and as an individual about myself, i will try to focus on the issues related to internal and external slavery. What we can see around us is the social system, which includes a stratification with respect to either caste/clan or economical disparities.

And whenever there is inequality and non-equitableness we(conscious citizen) think about fairness and justice. i would like to capture the whole scuttle slavery that has been introduced in our society since post Aryan or post Mouryan era. It has a nature of deriving utility of aristocracy, since the people who were living in the territory bounded with Indus, Himalaya and Brahmaputra were not aware about philosophical evolution in the west. This slavery was different from the exclusive slavery that existed in Confederate United States(Southern United States).   Some thing that was going to come from the countries(Europe), who have been living in dark ages(almost) and poverty since  1400A.D.  Thomas Mun(1571–1641) brought the idea of balance of trade and mercantile system. Which gave thrust to Europe to expand their manufacturing, international trade, and building colony across the globe. But the involved negative externalities in this ambition was scarcity of man power and their military capability helped them to conquer the less military equipped countries and penetrated the psychology of hierarchy on the basis of skin color. The voyagers' guts help them in this task. They took black color human from Africa and put in to their plantation and etc. to fight the scarcity of manpower for their ambitions.

I will not spend much of details which can explain how the whole Aryan system that was based on division of types of work. And how that system was escalated to extreme caste system and unaccountability. When British came to this part of the world they brought their defined slavery. And then our own so called Indian(was called by western) started differentiating themselves to find aristocracy. In the beginning the whole aristocracy was associated with kings and then it started percolated to lower levels and every second person wanted some landholding and workers on that land to project themselves as aristocrat. 

Now what is the present situation, the reluctance for change to break old school of thoughts is our internal slavery. However USA had worst slavery but they also broke their internal slavery and the example is of an Afro-American president. We need to understand how we are slave to our own thoughts of looking around for some kind of special treatment. That start from not standing in the queue for tickets to disrespecting women. why i m bringing these examples because we think that we aristocrat and how can we stand in a queue, because queue is for slaves. Also as a matter of fact an aristocrat should and can sleep with so many women by his will that leads them exhibiting machismo and try to seduce women and further to disrespect by doing heinous act of rape and assault.

These all are resultant of our internal(psychological) slavery that has been grown a lot. And need for a psychological manumission.

The Demise of "Khadi"

This post is originated from a incidence, when I saw a picture of the young  Indian politician. He was watching a polo match in a western modern outfit with one of his girlfriends. Further, I saw another picture in which he was wearing a white "khadi" "kurta pajama", addressing a political/election campaign.  A white "khadi" kurta symbolizes the Indian polity and serving society, which is rooted back in per-independance time.  Mr. Gandhi(Gandhiji or Mahatma) initiated a movement to protect Indian hand-woven cloths industry and weavers' livelihood by opposing foreign cloths. The prominent leaders at that time, those were indulging in foreign lifestyle(Mr. Nehru, Mr. Patel etc.) due to influence of foreign education. Gandhi ji gave a new realization, said that, if you are leader of of 30-40 million of people. Then you must be one of those, that brought "khadi" in to Indian freedom struggle and then in polity. And I can speculate that in those leaders some of them adopted the philosophy on face value rather imbibed it, Which probably produced the generations of hypocrisy. Though, then onwards "khadi" was considered as the symbol of common  man/woman who work for larger important issues of societies.

It has been observed that from last one and half decade the hand woven "khadi" has been replaced by linen in reach and growing reach population. But what is the difference between linen and cotton("Khadi")? we will see that as follows.

Linen

Linen is a fine fabric that comes from a plant known as flax.  It is one fabric that has extreme smoothness and a natural luster that enhances the beauty and elegance of bone china. This luster is long lasting and comes from a natural wax content of linen fabric. Being expensive, people keep clothing made of linen for use on ceremonies and functions. Like cotton, linen is highly absorbent and gives a cooling effect when worn in summers[1].

Cotton

Cotton comes from cotton plant and mankind has known about the versatility of this wonderful fabric since ancient civilizations. Because it is natural, cotton is suitable for all skin types and is therefore grown in all parts of the world. Cotton fibers are separated from the seeds of cotton through a process called combing afterwards are spun to convert into threads that can be both knitted and woven to manufacture fabrics[1].

 A normal population don't know what is major difference between cotton and linen just by observing from a distance. It is a hypocrisy in which the white "Khadi" has been portrayed by a very expensive linen. Further wearing white "Khadi Kurtha"(basically a costly linen) has become a ritual or ceremony when they got to meet with voters. The way "khadi" has been demised in time the core philosophy of serving society has been also replaced. The true values of social service in politicians have been replaced by irrational  economic behavior. By and large, that will be leading the society to dissatisfaction. An assumption in which we consider that politicians are wearing purely "khadi kurta". Then slowly the the population is shifting from kurta-pajama to shirt-trouser/denim. If they(leaders) represent a population, a question rises here,  are they different or same as population is now?              

     "Khadi"(larger population) is crying loud out, asking for recognition and a new definition

Reference:

[1] http://www.differencebetween.com/difference-between-cotton-and-vs-linen/

Ordinals of life

                Everyone wants to live his/her life with certain expectations. These expectations always come with our behavior that finds something better than whatever existing. This better is nothing but an ordinal preference of certain things over others see fig:1 let say .

Fig: 1 ; Ordinals of life

             If i take an example of any individual like famous people of different areas like art, sport, academia, business, power/politics etc. I find they follow a certain path but that path has been described by others not by them. And those personalities have found themselves passionate about something. So let us take one human for sake of discussion I consider a female gender. She compares herself a state  with state , so means she jumps from different curves and reaches to some point and if trace her all the points she make a new curve H of appreciation or just another curve C to be ignored. But the intention of following such path was nothing but becoming and person to whom whole human society can admire and follow. So every time she finds a gap a-b (intuitively or quantitatively) and tries to fill that gap to accomplish something. So she tries to be passionate about something and then she was trying to join the league of Sachin Tendulkar, A R Rehman, Steve jobs, Einstein, Marilyn Monroe, John Nash, etc.
                  But there are some people those are passionate about not following any curve and whenever they found theme selves they divert themselves. I met such personality, his name was sanjay, he was always passionate to be in the normal population {to know more about normal population click here}. Whenever he finds himself, considered special by others he brings himself into normal population. Sanjay was always appreciated for his arithmetic and followed by mathematical analysis in early childhood in school and high school. He didn’t like the appreciation and that annoyed him allot. He stops doing that, wanted that he should be considered as normal student. He passed out school and started painting. Unfortunately, again he was appreciated by the rest of the people, he left that too. Why he was doing that?? We don’t know. I made a hypothesis , probably he wanted to explore the life fullest rather exploring the life in only one dimension though he may get appreciation from the people, but that appreciation was propelling him to do that thing more n more. He was not passionate about one dimension he was passionate about exploring multidimensional and in unappreciated world. After almost living his half of life he chose to do his jobs where he used sell newspaper, and a tea shop and he was exploring life in different dimensions he does doing mathematics, solving Navier–Stokes equations, painting, observing people etc.......


P.S.-- I received some of comments that topic is not concluded appropriately.....actually my intention was to address the two different types of philosophies in life. One is a common way of living the life with ordinal preferences basis. The other one{uncommon} the reverse order ordinal preference. I just want to leave this as food for thought to the readers and do not want any judgment that one is better than other. I think there may be possibly many other view points and philosophies of living life.

           

need a B/W image

Today it is Indian festival of color "Holi" and international women's day{the species that makes world colorful}. If you see these days side there is Holi, other side there were election in some of the states. We all know that these elections are also very color full, like how much color one party spill over the other parties or the party members. and if we we see little deep down to our Indian society we find there are colors and shades of colors. I consider them as disparity.

To go along with this post first we should know what is the definition of "disparity". According to Webster dictionary, "disparity" is said, as some things in collection which is not congruous, . We have multidimensional array(disparity), If i assume an array of two dimension, where u will find in one dimension the disparity with respect to food, dress, rituals and in other dimensions in each of these direction(food, dress, honesty, corruption, etc.) a disparity.
The whole idea of this post is to bring some B/W, once i was at college in rural/suburban India. There was a group photo for college. It was not told to the students and teacher about the dress code. First of all why we need the dress code.? answer is, probably we believe that uniformity is accepted to us. So when the photo session was over, i asked one of the in-charge persons , how did u find this photo ?, there is huge disparity in this picture. So if this picture will be published, the disparity among the student with respect to their financial status are visible with their affordability of high quality/end dresses. I suggested them to publish that picture in B/W. I thought it will be just shades of gray and some how we will be able to minimize the disparity, because minimizing the disparity will bring the uniformity in the system that is what maximum people are expecting for.

As shown in above figure if I consider a function which changes the colored picture to a B/W one. I can see that disparity is quite minimize or i can see that is only in one dimension it means there are three basic colors like Red, Blue and Green , each one of has their different shades but if u convert in to B/W then u have only shades of grays. It is necessary to address the shades of gray. Every one around us is gray where as, when we talk about society and itz harmony we used bring some of the roll models like Ram, , Ravan, Krishna, Jesus, etc. for sake of discussion we will consider Ram and Ravan. We always consider Ram as white and Ravan as black or we can put in other understanding of binary variable of {0, 1}. But their is a continuity between Ram and Ravan, so it means if h is any human than he/she belongs to H .

where Ravan=0 and Ram= 1

This continuity makes society disparate and we pushing the society to two extreme ends of Ram or Ravan though we belongs to a linear combinations of Ram and Ravan. In UP election recently, where as every party has projected them as a socialist. Socialist means what i understand is less disparate society . But here in the electoral system we are trying to define and find a Ravan or a Ram. But everything is gray here around with a huge spectrum. And we are looking for complete black and complete white which leads us to a wide range of shades of grays.

As a concluding remarks I hypothesize that, if we can achieve a band of two consecutive grays which has minimum disparity that will leads the society to harmony and sustainable development. It means we need to get a B/W image and that will reduce the multidimensional disparity to one dimension and than minimize the disparity in one dimension by achieving two consecutive shades of gray or one shade of gray.

Irreversible Process

I think economic liberalization(started in 1991) and globalization was clearly evident to my generation we were in our teens and graduating from our school to get an admission in an Engg. school or Med. school. why only Engg./Med. school because the middle class of India have a dream of watching their kids in a good Engg school like IITs and Med. schools(govt.). To satisfy these dreams, they(parents) used to send their kids away from them, to urban/metro cities or themselves try to settle in those cities. I also prepared for JEE but i was overqualified one of the subjects the subject that was not in the JEE syllabus, so ended with a massage on computer screen "Sorry!! you are not qualified", and further that was the year of 2000, the dot com bubble was burst, so i chose Mechanical Engg. and admission in an Engg. school(not IIT).

I remember my final year of engg., we the mechanical guys got almost a good placement with descent compensation in different companies, and my beloved computer science friends were observing the deflating dot com bubble till Dec. 2004. They used to say that " look these hammer boys got the jobs and we ...!!". But with the return of dot com booms, met them satisfied with very good jobs and and some of them settled in "the land of opportunity".

The above story is the story of more than millions of young tech gigs, who left their downtown or rural areas(villages). A large proportion of them probably are now parents of the kids of same age in which they left their town for metro cities. Almost last 15 years these metro cities are joined by new metro cities and so many new tier 2 cities. Some of the rural areas, which(gudgaon) has been eaten by urbanization and economic growth of India.

We all have seen this rural to urban migration and the metro cities are flooded with skilled and unskilled manpower. The good weather 's cities like Pune and Bangalore had attracted chop shops majorly. So the incoming skilled manpower to these cities contributed to Indian economic growth and they put limited resources(land, water) in stressed of this cities. A rapid infrastructure development also brought unskilled manpower from rural to urban. The rapid population shift was not accommodated in these new locations because the the required infrastructure to provide essential commodity like water, food and electricity was not sufficient. So this approach made the whole new urban locations with completely dissatisfied citizens. This Reminds me lecture of Engineering Thermodynamics we studied the irreversible process used to loose the energy in the form of heat and they are not efficient, particularly these processes are very fast(rapid) process.

High wages of metro cities has attracted unskilled population as well. The required manpower and interest for agriculture is getting reduced . Which can cause severe food scarcity as a matter of fact we are still in alarming situation of food insecurity . It has also raised some of the social problems. Example people who has settled to new urban environment used to hesitate to bring their rural cultured family members to urban city, has weakened the family values and binding.

There are so many problem associated with this rapid economic growth, which is not talking about the development in a holistic. we can observe the growth on stock exchange and civil infrastructure development in some selected locations. But that doesn't reflect the poverty alleviation or providing a good livelihood in terms of potable water and nutritious food to each child and citizen. Every where people are talking about sustainable development, till now i have not seen any signal in India where the problems above are addressed properly.

I believe that the decentralization of economic development and self sufficient economic system at every village level will make the difference. All the possible causes of rural to urban migration should be addressed, like education(particularly mathematics education), health services and strong infrastructure to provide potable water and a fair trading mechanism inside rural and between rural-urban with an opportunity to the village to explore for new possibilities of entertainment.

All the possible measures need to be taken to accommodate the sustainable rate of incoming skilled/unskilled population by reducing the pace of economic growth at urban level. If we will see in holistic way the total economic utility of the India will be maximum because the economic growth and development at rural level will compensate the reduction of economic growth at urban level.

!!now i am realizing the subject in which i was overqualified and it was not in the JEE syllabus, is philosophy !!